With the World at its Edge so much is at Stake...

How deep will the Global Downturn hit the world ?

"Our world today is interconnected and at the same time disconnected. Multiple pathways converge but also diverge."

Can the scale of new global crises triggered by Covid-19 Pandemic be forseen ?

Global economic outlook still worsening, says IMF.

Forecasts reveal that COVID-19 is likely to cause the first increase in global poverty since 1998, when the Asian Financial Crisis hit. With the new forecasts, global poverty—the share of the world’s population living on less than $1.90 per day—is projected to increase from 8.2% in 2019 to 8.6% in 2020, or from 632 million people to 665 million people.

In mid-April the IMF forecast a contraction of 3 per cent in global output, with emerging and developing economies contracting 1 per cent and advanced economies 6.1 per cent over the course of this year. Speaking in an interview IMF Executive said: “With the crisis still spreading, the outlook is worse than our already pessimistic projection. Without medical solutions on a global scale, for many economies a more adverse development is likely

United Nations: Global unemployment is projected to increase by around 2.5 million in 2020 and almost half a billion people are working fewer paid hours than they would like or lack adequate access to paid work, according to UN's International Labour Organization report.

Facts Speak Themselves

 

                   

How will the pandemic affect the world order?

Analysts call this a G-zero world where there is a power vacuum, a leadership deficit. The US, typified for long as the leader of the democratic world, is suffering from this big corona crisis. The US seems reluctant to provide world leadership. And China, the other world power, is still to get there but China is exploiting its opportunities.

Strong adversarial lines have been drawn between China and the US in recent years, particularly during the lifespan of the Donald Trump administration. The pandemic and its aftermath will only deepen these tensions. Ideally, given the severity of the pandemic situation, the US and China should cooperate. Organisations like the World Health Organisation cannot be the target of blame-mongering at this time. Every nation must contribute to help other nations to come up with sensible strategies to combat the pandemic and to develop global protocols for mitigation, treatment, and prevention of the disease.

It seems every business, every society and every nation's politics will be affected. What is certain is that the world will not be the same, there will not be a usual re-opening of businesses as they were before the pandemic because we have been hit by a crisis of a sort we have never encountered before. It is only the enduring trust and humanity that can help us negotiate the post-trauma world that we face.

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